How’s the Real Estate Market in Williamsburg Virginia?

Here Are Some Updated Market Statistics

When Looking at statistics, as I’ve often said, “statistics can be made to prove anything, even the truth”. The problem is statistics can be manipulated to prove almost anything. Someone else once said “98% of statistics are made up”. The irony is of course that that is a statistic so who knows, maybe that’s true!

What I have below are real time graphs fed directly from my MLS. You’ll have access to what is going on in our entire MLS, which geographically covers a very large section of SE Virginia, and a more localized important group of zip codes representing the greater “Williamsburg” market. Those zip codes are 23168-23185 and 23188. The problem is those zip codes cover 4 municipalities: The City of Williamsburg, James City County, Upper James City County and Upper York County. Within each of those are dozens of communities that span price ranges from the mid $100,000 to several million dollars. So statistically,  any statistics covering the whole MLS may be less accurate or skewed. Imagine what that really means when you hear, and pundits often rely on, NATIONAL housing statistics.

It’s also important to understand that medians and averages, yield different statistics. Medians are perhaps more reliable since they represent the mid number-half higher and half lower. Averages are important but can easily be swayed by a few large or small transactions or prices. That may give the reader the wrong message. Say for instance two homes sold last month. One for $1,000,000 and one for $100,000. The average sold price would be $550,000. But is that in any way helpful? It’s also important to factor in re-sales or new construction, attached or detached, condos-townhomes, arms length sales-short sales or foreclosures. THERE ARE LOTS OF VARIABLES AND ENDLESS CHARTS AND INTERPRETATIONS! Don’t dwell too much on the market stats, because you’ll never make a decision to invest, buy or sell at the very most opportune time. You can’t time the market, and by the time you act, you’ll be late.

So back to some local stats. These are median numbers when looking at prices! I am putting closed median sales price, closed sales units, days on the market (for the median sold price) and our inventory of available homes. These are all attached and detached home types in the areas mentioned. When I am talking about buyers or sellers market, it is usually in reference to the number of homes available relative to the number of homes that have been sold. So if we have 1200 homes on the market, and sell 100 homes every month, our “inventory” is 12 months. That’s how long it would take to sell what we have. In reality, homes come on and off the market every month as well as  seasonally all year long. But a balanced market is typically looks like 6 months of inventory. Again, you must look at the price range, type of dwelling and numerous other factors to know if you are buying or selling in a buyers market or sellers market. Hovering your mouse over the graph line will show you quarterly statistics!

Closed Sales-units

Ending Inventory

median sales price graphic

Median Sales price

Median Days on Market

 If you want me to help you figure out how your market is (in Williamsburg or Hampton Roads), please let me know!

NO Fee, NO obligation, NO Pressure!

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have added a new page where I will be making updated stat reports and opinions, so please note that page on the left side bar. I will be playing with the site design a little to make it fresher and easier to work with and find things. Please keep in mind I am an excellent Realtor, and do spend all day trying to become an author, web designer, tech guru and welcome your input and comments!

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While the market may appear dark and stormy, I believe there is reason to be very optimistic looking forward! Remember, the housing bubble burst almost 7 years ago!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Top 10 New Years resolutions for 2014!

ImageWhile I am waiting for my MLS to implement their new stats program, I needed something to talk about. And since this is the time of the year for new resolutions, I’m going to put in writing some of mine so you can hold me (or to hold myself) accountable!

  1. Exercise and eat regularly and better. This is cliche, but but my schedule is anything but a schedule yet I always find time to do everything but eat and exercise. So I will be “off the grid” this year a couple hours a day and will focus on some personal time to improve my health. On December 31 2013 I weighed 236lbs and am 6ft tall. By December 31st 2014 I will weigh 195lbs or will be 7.5ft tall so I am not called obese on my Wii!
  2. I will call my mom and dad to check on them weekly, and will let my brothers and sisters know I appreciate all that they do since I am not close by.
  3. I will schedule time every week to reach out to my clients and customers for regular updates. Again, this needs to get scheduled to get done so every Friday will be my contact day. I’ll allocate two hours to call, email,text or visit my current clients who are buying or selling a home
  4. I will do a better job of following up with my recent buyers and sellers who have already closed to say hello, check on their satisfaction. That will be done on a monthly basis. So my schedule on the 25th of every month will be to call or write the clients from the last 60 days. That way I’ll be “touching them” twice right after we’ve parted ways
  5. I will read an article that will make me a better Realtor every week. We have to continually be looking and learning about this ever changing career and economy. I will re post what I’ve learned or discovered that might help you
  6. I will continue to treat everyone with respect and gratitude regardless if it ever gets repaid.
  7. I will continue to open the door for you so you can enter the store or get in line before me at Starbucks or Panera or anywhere else the line is long
  8. I will continue to treat other peoples property with respect. I will make sure my shoes are clean or off when I enter the house, I will make sure the lights are off when I leave and the door is locked. I will leave a card so you know I was there.
  9. I will continue to donate to those in need. United Way, Childrens Miracle Network, Susan G komen, Salvation Army all benefit from my closed transactions
  10. I will continue to smile, wave and say hello and thank you whether you acknowledge me or not. I WILL NOT LET ANOTHER PERSON RUIN MY DAY!

The Time of the Year For Statistics…

AboveTheCrowd_Balloon_Color_WebCan you believe it is already the end of 2013? With just a few days left, businesses are scrambling to meet objectives set in a different economic climate. How do they measure the successes or failures of this year? Some, measure unit sales while others sales volumes. Others may look at price increases. Still others will look at employee productivity. The truth is all of these measurements can be made to look as good or as bad as they want.

The bean counters look at one stat, the tax people another, consumers want one indication, while the sales force measures the money in their paycheck. So who do we believe? Who can we trust to help us make the right buying decision, whether it’s a stock, a car, a college or one of your most expensive purchases…a home?

20131221055515This chart was pulled this morning from the Williamsburg MLS, and snapshots several price ranges with October 2013 compared to October 2012 and  YTD 2013 vs. 2012. If I choose to look at homes for sale between $550,000 and $650,000, I can boast that we’ve seen a 400% increase over between Oct 2012 and Oct 2013, or a 190% increase YTD 2013 vs 2012. Of course that’s on a whopping 6 sales over 2 or 308 over 250. What would I see if I looked at $5000 increments instead of $50,000? If you look at $200,000 to $300,000 for Oct 2012 vs  Oct 2013 the month was flat despite a YTD 46% improvement YOY. Remember, these are units and price ranges. Prices may still reflect another scenario. Today the editors want good news, tomorrow they want doom and gloom. They’ll get both from the same reports if they want!

So real estate statistics are not that simple.  Numbers get pulled from too many sources, with too many variables that greatly affect the accuracy or value or the data. Pessimists and optimists will look at the same chart and see two different things. Just like proverbial glass-is it half empty or half full?

I’ve been very fortunate to participate in over $10,000,000 in sales this year on over 30 transactions. My stats would indicate that was a good year using several measuring sticks. But I can also find the negative in my performance. Am I likely to tell you?   But the guy or girl sitting in the office next to me may have different stats. If you talk to them at a party tonight and me tomorrow, who will you believe?

Why and how “agency” made my seller $33,000

ImageDual Agency, standard agency, limited service, independent contractor, Realtor, agent…do these terms mean much to you? Are you aware that your agent may not be a Realtor or that your agent may not even be your agent?

EVERY real estate agent, possesses a license by the state they practice in. There are licensing laws everyone has to adhere to and there are ethics that in all cases a Realtor has to adhere to which in many cases raise the bar even higher. Belonging to local/state and national Realtor associations comes at a price and level of service. That’s not to say that an “agent” cannot employ those standards, but there is no obligation to do so or consequences if they don’t.

Now, with that background, onto my story. I have a vacant lot listed for sale and I am an Associate Broker Realtor. My seller agreed t a listing price of $239,000. There are hundreds of vacant lots on the market and this was a price that seemed plausible to ask and to generate interest. It was not a give away price for a vacant lot and the market is very good for home sellers, not so much for vacant lot sellers. I represented the seller only when I listed it and owed them standard agent loyalties.

A customer called in on Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend and after a short conversation expressed that he wanted to write an offer. Prior to that I could answer his questions and do whatever I could to “sell” the lot. At the point he said he wanted to write an offer, my obligation shifts to “disclosure”. Not because my license requires that, but my Realtor status does. I explained I could write his desired terms and present it to the seller still representing my seller as a client and him as a customer. I explained the dual agency relationship, as well as that of an independent contractor. It was clear he understood the options, but I said I didn’t want to do any of that, in fact wouldn’t. I suggested I could have an agent call him to be his standard agency and to perform those duties for him that I was doing for the seller. He had a Realtor friend who could do that for him which was fine with me, but that little bug in my ear said, did I just harm the seller by not writing the offer when a buyer said he wanted to write? I didn’t believe so, trusting that I did the right thing for me and him. Click here for your realtors role. Virginia has a made it a law that a brokerage relationship must be written and signed.

We ended up receiving the offer on Sunday night so the buyer was clearly motivated and ready, and wrote a very desirable offer. However, another agent also called Sunday to say we might be receiving another offer Monday morning. So we held off on answering the first offer until we knew. Low and behold Monday we received another offer-again, very desirable. Now I knew I had done right by the seller in providing the buyer their options and standing only with my initial client. The process went through notifying both agents that we had multiple offers and asking for highest and best offers which they both provided.

In the end, the seller accepted an offer of $271,500-$32,500 higher than their asking price. Had I gone ahead and written the offer for the “customer” on Sunday night, both buyer and seller might have been satisfied. But what would I have done when the second offer came in? Who would the buyer or seller think I was working for during the process. Would my “client” be concerned I might be negotiating for the “customer”? In the end, I had one client and one role-represent them in a legally competent manner, and hopefully get them the most we could for the sale.

It’s a very difficult situation for sure, but the way it went down, I had no trouble sleeping at night. I represented my client very well. I left both other Realtors with a very positive impression of how I handled the multiple offers. The customer I believe he appreciated the fact I explained agency to him and his options, even if it did cost him more in the end. But that was caused by another buyer, not me. He might have questioned my motives if I had to go to him to compete with another offer.

There’s a lot that goes into what an agent or Realtor must do for “clients” and can do for “customers”.  Only a professional can help with that, and only someone with lots of experience will know enough to objectively and expertly guide people through the process!

Great new Williamsburg Real Estate market stats through April 2013

chart graphicI chatted with someone on the phone yesterday who called while sitting in front of my yard sign at a house I’m listing. That’s a good sign..he called me! He asked me first about the features of the house and then what the price was. He then informed me what a tail spin the market is in locally and was surprised the seller was asking so much. Game on…

The source of his perception was Zillow. Not surprising, they are populating the first page or two of Google along with Homes.com, Trulia.com,Realtor.com,and a host of other abbrogators who can afford to do that because they sell A LOT of advertising to REALTORS and real estate agents who are competing for buyer referrals. We have the DOJ to thank for a lot of that but that’s a whole other blog and gripe! The problem is Zillow and many home sites looks a lot at zip codes and the city of Williamsburg has three, despite its barely 10,000 residents which includes William and Mary College. Sprinkled into that Williamsburg search may be homes within a few miles that could be in York or James City County but share the same zip codes. This creates a major difference in pricing and sales activity.

Below are snapshots of our market-both the entire Williamsburg MLS and a more specific property seach that comprises of 60-70% of our actual activity-single family detached home sales in zip codes 23188,23185,23168 in James City County,York County and Williamsburg. It is paramount that when we talk with buyers and sellers, we are comparing apples to apples. There may be different ways to compare and analyze the markets, which will likely yield different results but when you look at them in the entirety, you simply cannot dispute the fact that we are not in a tailspin.

April 2013 stats

The top chart represents our entire MLS activity and  bottom chart represents a particular and perhaps more meaningful report-single family homes, in the greater Williamsburg market. The bottom chart is a more significant part of the real market we work in every day-greater Williamsburg, single family detached homes.Click on the image to view it larger. When a buyer comes looking or a seller thinks about selling a single family home in the greater Williamsburg market,  why would I include stats on townhomes, condos and rentals in Gloucester, Newport News or Virginia Beach? But that’s what happens when you take the easy way and don’t drill down to specific criteria. Trust me, when I take this further and look at certain neighborhoods, type of home, bedroom count, age and school districts the numbers look vastly different again, but further point to a market that is anything but in a tailspin!

Incidently, the smaller graphic at the top represents the period of time leading into and through the bubble-and that was hardly a tailspin. It was a month over month reaction to the media that we started climbing out of all the way back in late 2010. But there were some great moments for buyers and sellers even back then!  Our recovery is well on its way and we could easily be back in a seller’s market by the middle of this summer if sellers continue to hold their homes off the market. That goes for banks and loan servicers holding some inventory back or more specifically sellers afraid they will sell and won’t have anywhere to move !

Each RE/MAX office is independently owned and operated. Licensed in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Copyright May 2013 Jim Mellen,RE/MAX Peninsula at New Town. Visit www.JimMellen.com for more information

Fords Colony in WIlliamsburg Virginia

I’ve been looking at the first quarter statistics for various parts of our Williamsburg Virginia real estate market and decided to look just at Fords Colony. That is one of our very poopular gated golf course communities. There are currently about 2000 properties there with another couple hundred lots unbuilt. There are two community pools, 24 hour mobile security and three 18 hole championship golf courses.

Just like everywhere else in Williamsburg, the recovery has been well under way. Inventory is starting to dwindle, buyers are stedily flowing in, and offers are getting in written higher and faster than the last few years. The chart below represents all of that. Specifically what caught my eye and really made me happy was the sharp increases in median price/average house price, volume,saturation and months end inventory both in March YOY as well as this YTD.

Fords Colony Stats

Fords Colony 2013 real estate stats

 

For more information about how your neighborhood might compare to Fords Colony or any other Williamsburg neighborhood, please give me a call or send me an email. I love to answer that open ended  question…”How’s the Market?”

Supply is setting the stage for a sellers market

After yesterday’s scenario, a friend called to ask some questions about a refinance he’s looking at and wanted to get my thoughts on his value and my thoughts on the market. He’s at a rate over 5.5% and should be able to drop down about 1.5% which will be a noticeable drop in his payment. As the federal government continues to target the MID as a cost savings, the lower your rate, the better off you’ll be. You want more principal coming off your mortgage!

JCC inventory chart

The chart above represents the Williamsburg MLS listed inventory in James City County for 2012. And this is just 2012! Looking back from 2008, when we had about a 20 month supply of homes, we are clearly doing very well in the county. James City County is home to less than 70,000 people according to the 2010 census. The roughly 8.75 months of inventory in this segment vs 11.5 at the beginning of the year is proof sellers and buyers are coming to terms!

Here is my search scenario with very broad criteria, and what many of my buyers would call their “basic search” and a link to the actual MLS search with live data:

  • James City County (all zip codes)
  • 3 Bedroom detached single family home
  • 2300-2600 sf
  • 2.5 bathrooms
  • First floor master bedroom
  • Link to the MLS search  http://rem.ax/SAyJTp

Surprisingly there are only 21 listings to choose from. Looking next at price, because that is always a limiting criteria you might get more surprised. Only 5 are less than $300,000 , 7 are between $300,000-$400,000 and 9 are over $400,000. What a buyer needs or wants, and how the agent searches for that make a big difference in what they find. But clearly, there are relatively few choices if you want or need the above features.

A seller’s market is typically described as 6 months or less of inventory. When searching for a home for a buyer client and I’ve identified their search criteria whether it’s their minimum or their dream home search, I determine the absorption rate and do a comparative market analysis before we get in the car and start shopping. I have to prove to them before we start looking what “their” market looks like. I do the exact same thing when doing a market analysis for a seller, establishing a more believable and trustworthy perception of the market. This is critical in combatting a negative media perception based on market data pulled from across the country that might not bear any relevance on James City County in January of 2013!

Study the market, study the agents and ask for nothing less than what I’ve quickly mentioned here when deciding to buy,sell,rent or invest in real estate! 

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